Gold is driven by real yields, the USD, and risk sentiment. A strong approach is macro for bias plus technicals for execution.
1) Macro anchors
- Real yields: rising real rates often pressure gold; falling real yields tend to support it.
- USD: a stronger USD is usually a headwind, but in extreme risk-off both USD and gold can rise.
- Flows: central bank buying and ETF positioning can influence the medium-term narrative.
2) Technical execution (trend pullback works well)
- Mark key zones on Weekly/Daily (prior highs/lows, trend lines, congestion areas), then refine on 4H/1H.
- Use MA20/MA60 as a structure filter. In an uptrend, pullbacks that hold MA20 and reclaim momentum are often higher quality.
- RSI is useful for spotting momentum exhaustion and divergence near turning points, but do not fade a strong trend only because RSI is high.
- Use ATR to set stops and targets (for example 1.5x ATR stop and 2 to 3R target), aligned with structure.
Common mistake: treating every data print as a regime change. Often the real driver is the path of rates. Keep the plan simple: macro sets direction, structure sets entries, risk sets size.