Oil is a trend market that is frequently interrupted by inventories and geopolitics. Separate narrative from execution: fundamentals define scenarios, technicals execute. 1) Key catalysts to watch - OPEC+ policy and compliance commentary - EIA/API inventory reports (crude, gasoline, distillates together) - Geopolitical and shipping disruptions that add or remove risk premium - Term structure (contango/backwardation) and roll impact for futures/ETFs 2) Technical playbook - Mark Daily/4H structure (trend line, prior highs/lows, ranges). Breakout then pullback hold is a higher-quality entry. - Use MA20/MA60 as a trend filter; MACD histogram can help gauge momentum expansion. - Use ATR to adjust stops and reduce size ahead of high-impact releases. - Scale out near major resistance and let the rest run with a trailing stop. Oil rewards discipline: write scenarios, reduce risk around events, and avoid chasing the first headline candle.